Aditya Agarwal: Outcomes Over Pure Software
Status: deeper X source note
Source
- Source: Aditya Agarwal post on X
- Format: X post / long post
- Person: Aditya Agarwal
- Date visible from fetched metadata: 2026-06-25
- User capture:
external_material/archive/processed/2026-07-06-aditya-agarwal-outcomes-over-software.docx
Public metadata and the local capture indicate the post argues that starting a pure software company is unusually hard because customers want outcomes rather than software, horizontal products are under pressure, customization demand is high, and the opportunity requires a heretical two-to-three-year view.
Neutral Summary
The claim is an AI-era software-market warning:
customers do not primarily want software
customers want outcomes
horizontal software is on a clock
customers want deep customization
there are still opportunities, but they require a non-obvious future view
The post is short, but it compresses a large strategic shift. "Software" as a generic artifact is becoming less compelling when AI makes production easier and customers can expect more tailored support. The target shifts toward outcomes, workflows, and context-specific capability.
Why This Matters For Theme Theory
This post is close to the project’s Software-First Theme Ideation line. Theme Theory says that when building becomes easier, the bottleneck moves toward:
What is worth building?
Aditya's post adds the market-side version:
What outcome is the customer actually trying to realize?
Those are nearly the same question at different levels. Theme Theory would translate "customers want outcomes" into:
users / customers want support toward a meaningful audience-side or
customer-side state
That does not mean every B2B workflow has the same emotional or story-like texture as a creator-audience theme. But it does mean the software should be understood in relation to the state it helps produce, not only as a feature bundle.
Outcome, Customization, And Higher-Order State
The post's emphasis on customization is especially important.
If customers want deeply customized outcomes, it suggests the valuable object is not the generic tool but the fit between tool, context, and desired state. Theme Theory's higher-order-state framing explains why that happens. A meaningful state usually involves:
- context;
- constraints;
- memory;
- judgment;
- tradeoffs;
- recurring action;
- feedback;
- adaptation over time.
Horizontal software often abstracts away context in order to scale. AI may make that abstraction less tolerable because customers can increasingly imagine software that meets them closer to their actual situation.
Theme Theory's support question fits this pressure:
What has to happen for this state to become more attainable, and where can
software support it?
The better the builder understands the state, the less arbitrary customization looks. Some customization is noise. Some is primary theme data or workflow context that the support system needs in order to be genuinely useful.
Heretical View And Theme Projection
The post's "heretical 2-3 year view" matters because Theme Theory is not only a user-research checklist. The project has been treating theme identification as a reasoning move:
creator / builder value -> projected audience-side state -> supports
That projection can be wrong, but it is not random. It requires taste, judgment, and a view of how a domain may change.
In the AI software context, the heretical view may be the willingness to reason past today's software categories toward the state people will expect once agentic customization is normal. The theme or outcome may remain durable while the concrete build artifacts change quickly.
Core Edges
- Software-First Theme Ideation: direct outside support for the claim that build cost falling makes direction and outcome selection more important.
- Build Support Around The Theme: reinforces that software should support action, context, feedback, and progress toward a state.
- Theme Projection Worksheet: provides a practical method for moving from available value or product ideas toward outcome hypotheses.
- Media And Non-Media Business: relevant to the distinction between a business selling tools and a business building audience/trust around the outcome those tools support.
Candidate Concept Edges
customers want outcomes->audience-side / customer-side statecustomization pressure->primary theme datahorizontal software pressure->generic tool weaknessheretical 2-3 year view->theme projection under changing capabilitypure software difficulty->software must become support around a state
Working Judgment
This is a compact but strong milieu item. It should not be overpromoted as if it proves Theme Theory, but it is a clean outside statement of a pressure the core docs already predict: in an AI-abundant software environment, value moves toward outcomes, fit, direction, and support.